During his junior season at Arizona State, Terrell Suggs set an NCAA record with 24 sacks. Suggs was set to be a top pick in the 2003 NFL draft until he ran a 4.84 in the 40 yard dash at the draft combine. Suggs was an All-American in college, yet a slow 40 time seriously threatened his draft stock. Despite worries about his speed, the Baltimore Ravens selected Suggs with the 10th overall pick. When asked about Suggs' 40 time, a Ravens' official responded, "If our linebackers have to run 40 yards to make a tackle, we have bigger problems." Suggs was the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2003 and has played at an All-Pro level since, while Baltimore consistently stays competitive due to intelligent drafting.
The NFL draft gets under way this Thursday, when day one of the three day draft is held in New York, and is sure to be full of moments similar to the one Suggs and the Ravens experienced back in 2003.
In past years, teams entered the draft having filled holes via free agency and had subsequently narrowed their list of needs, allowing them to focus on specific players in the draft. However, due to ongoing labor disputes, this weekend's draft puts teams at the disadvantage of drafting prior to free agency. Consequently, it's unclear which players will be drafted in what order when the draft begins.
What is clear, is this draft will be filled with a few of the same mistakes teams make year in and year out.
Here are a few observations I have made in year's past:
Beware of combine All-Stars
Too much stock us put into what a player does at the combine, and not enough into what the player did on the field. There isn't much difference in a guy who can do 30 reps at 225 and the guy who only does 26, or the guy who runs the 40 in 4.28 and the guy who runs a 4.35. You only draft the guy who did 30 reps or ran the 4.28 if he has OTHER skills that have shown out on the field. Like the example of Terrell Suggs mentioned earlier, the numbers don't always tell the story.
Too much stock us put into what a player does at the combine, and not enough into what the player did on the field. There isn't much difference in a guy who can do 30 reps at 225 and the guy who only does 26, or the guy who runs the 40 in 4.28 and the guy who runs a 4.35. You only draft the guy who did 30 reps or ran the 4.28 if he has OTHER skills that have shown out on the field. Like the example of Terrell Suggs mentioned earlier, the numbers don't always tell the story.
The dangers of "potential"
Potential is fine if the player is already performing at a high level in the proper areas, but inaccurate passers are inaccurate passers no matter how strong their arms are (see upcoming article this Thursday), fast receivers with poor hands don't develop better hands in the pros, etc. Bottom line, potential gets General Managers fired. If only the Raiders had read this article before they drafted JaMarcus Russell.Need over value
Teams draft more on need than value, especially quarterbacks. If you need a QB but it's a weak QB class, you don't have to waste your first-round pick on a guy just to fill the need. If you need a QB, chances are you don't have a good team, which means you also have other holes to fill. Fill the other holes and get a QB later. Reaching for a player to fill a need will only set your team back even more when the player ends up a bust. This year's draft is a classic example of this as there is no QB without any red flags. Still, at least one team will take a huge risk with a high first round pick.
Teams draft more on need than value, especially quarterbacks. If you need a QB but it's a weak QB class, you don't have to waste your first-round pick on a guy just to fill the need. If you need a QB, chances are you don't have a good team, which means you also have other holes to fill. Fill the other holes and get a QB later. Reaching for a player to fill a need will only set your team back even more when the player ends up a bust. This year's draft is a classic example of this as there is no QB without any red flags. Still, at least one team will take a huge risk with a high first round pick.
Off-the-field problems
Poor off-the-field behavior falls into two categories: behavior effecting only the player and behavior effecting others. The former is far less alarming than the latter. Not that I condone smoking pot in anyway, however, historically, players who have been caught smoking pot have dropped precipitously down the first round yet ended up being very successful NFL players. Randy Moss, Warren Sapp and Percy Harvin are prime examples. However, players who get caught up in something such as domestic abuse, have not historically been successful in the NFL. See Lawrence Phillips.
Poor off-the-field behavior falls into two categories: behavior effecting only the player and behavior effecting others. The former is far less alarming than the latter. Not that I condone smoking pot in anyway, however, historically, players who have been caught smoking pot have dropped precipitously down the first round yet ended up being very successful NFL players. Randy Moss, Warren Sapp and Percy Harvin are prime examples. However, players who get caught up in something such as domestic abuse, have not historically been successful in the NFL. See Lawrence Phillips.
Late risers
Every year there seems to be one or two guys who sky rocket up draft boards the week of the draft. When, the week before the draft, a player goes from being a fringe first-round pick to cracking the top 10, teams needs to take a step back and ask themselves if the player has done anything new over the last week to deserve the meteoric rise. In most cases, the answer will be "No" and teams should not reach on such a player.
Every year there seems to be one or two guys who sky rocket up draft boards the week of the draft. When, the week before the draft, a player goes from being a fringe first-round pick to cracking the top 10, teams needs to take a step back and ask themselves if the player has done anything new over the last week to deserve the meteoric rise. In most cases, the answer will be "No" and teams should not reach on such a player.
All five of these observations sound logical yet teams make these mistakes year after year.
While I may not be able to tell a team who to draft, identifying who not to draft is a little easier, and identifying who not to pick will narrow down the list of possible options and increase a team's chances of drafting a player who will contribute immediately.
With that in mind, let the mistakes begin!
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